Yerevan

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late June – late August
Record year: 201537
Trend: −6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +96%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	23	0
2002	21	0
2003	19	0
2004	23	0
2005	21	0
2006	22	0
2007	19	0
2008	22	0
2009	19	0
2010	23	0
2011	26	2
2012	16	16
2013	27	27
2014	21	21
2015	37	37
2016	21	21
2017	26	26
2018	25	43
2019	33	71
2020	18	32
2021	11	21
2022	10	18
2023	12	27
2024	12	39
2025	28	96
2026	32	62

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Outside the fire season↓

Sat14°

Sun15°

Mon12°

Tue11°

Wed12°

Thu11°

Fri12°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~0.3 expected · usual 0.8

likely 0.0–2.5 · usual 0.0–0.8

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – early September

Onset: early March
Peak: early August
End: early September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

late June – late August
40% of annual activity
mid March – late March
9% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −6%/10Raw: +96%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 24.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.21).

Unusual years

14

2012
16
season ended 3 weeks early
2013
27
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks early
2014
21
season began 3 weeks early
2015
37
1.8× the normal annual activity
peak 5.0× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks late
2016
21
season ended 5 weeks early
2017
26
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
2018
25
peak 2.3× stronger than normal
2019
33
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
season began 13 weeks late
2021
11
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2022
10
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 16 weeks early
2023
12
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season ended 8 weeks early
2024
12
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season began 10 weeks early
2025
28
season ended 4 weeks late
2026
32
peak 2.3× stronger than normal
season began 12 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson