The problem
0
years in one archive
0
satellites, 2 sensors
0
districts and provinces
0
fire detections processed
+0.0%
harmonization error (held-out years)
raw MODIS: −75%
0.00
ROC-AUC of the risk model
The fire calendar
Each ring is a year, each slice a week. Season onset, peak weeks, the end of the season and unusual years are all found automatically.
Season
late June – late February
Peak period
late June – mid September
Unusual years
| Year | Harmonized |
|---|---|
| 2001 | 7775 |
| 2002 | 7125 |
| 2003 | 5850 |
| 2004 | 8142 |
| 2005 | 4581 |
| 2006 | 6038 |
| 2007 | 4139 |
| 2008 | 4290 |
| 2009 | 3969 |
| 2010 | 6858 |
| 2011 | 4908 |
| 2012 | 4240 |
| 2013 | 4761 |
| 2014 | 3456 |
| 2015 | 8290 |
| 2016 | 5415 |
| 2017 | 5862 |
| 2018 | 4651 |
| 2019 | 7824 |
| 2020 | 4344 |
| 2021 | 4533 |
| 2022 | 4052 |
| 2023 | 2047 |
| 2024 | 1866 |
| 2025 | 4050 |
| 2026 | 2801 |
Next 7 days
The short-term model combines the harmonized history with temperature, humidity, wind, rainfall and vegetation.
Séno
Burkina FasoAn active part of the fire season
Soum
Burkina FasoThis year is more active than normal
Namentenga
Burkina FasoAn active part of the fire season
Sanmatenga
Burkina FasoAn active part of the fire season
Gnagna
Burkina FasoAn active part of the fire season
Oudalan
Burkina FasoAn active part of the fire season
Two audiences
How it works
NASA FIRMS (MODIS C6.1, VIIRS S-NPP / NOAA-20 / NOAA-21), NASA POWER weather, NDVI, Open-Meteo forecasts.
Quantile mapping per region and season, conditional bias correction, and block-bootstrap uncertainty.
Season onset, peak weeks, critical windows and unusual years, all on one consistent record.
LightGBM: a calibrated probability for the next 7 days, a 13-week season outlook, and the reasons behind each.
Why now
The overlap period, when both sensors fly at once, is the only basis for calibration. Once it ends, building one consistent archive gets much harder.