Namentenga

Next 7 daysExtreme92%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – mid January
Record year: 20242,407
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +4%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	43	0
2002	33	0
2003	32	3
2004	35	4
2005	32	2
2006	15	0
2007	59	9
2008	14	0
2009	14	0
2010	14	0
2011	15	0
2012	12	10
2013	11	11
2014	9	9
2015	9	9
2016	11	11
2017	23	23
2018	9	14
2019	11	16
2020	7	9
2021	115	278
2022	109	243
2023	837	1585
2024	2407	5323
2025	1905	3793
2026	1018	2662

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4,031.9×

usual = 1×

This month: 565
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~101.0

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun36°

Mon38°

Tue37°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri36°

Right now

early November

This week85

This week is more active than 88% of past years at this time

Year to date1,018

#3 of 26 yearsNormal: 12

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~101 expected · usual 24

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~723 expected · usual 152

likely 25–1,299 · usual 0.0–314

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – early March

Onset: late October
Peak: mid November
End: early March

Critical windows

mid October – mid January
75% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: +4%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 494.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2021 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2002
33
season began 4 weeks late
2007
59
peak 5.5× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2013
11
season began 6 weeks late
2017
23
season began 4 weeks late
2018
9
season began 3 weeks early
2021
115
7.7× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 17 weeks early
2022
109
7.3× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 17 weeks early
2023
837
56× the normal annual activity
peak 72× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 20 weeks early
2024
2,407
160× the normal annual activity
peak 164× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 14 weeks early
2025
1,905
127× the normal annual activity
peak 170× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 16 weeks early
2026
1,018
68× the normal annual activity
peak 130× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 12 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Namentenga

Next 7 daysExtreme92%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – mid January
Record year: 20242,407
Trend: −1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +4%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	43	0
2002	33	0
2003	32	3
2004	35	4
2005	32	2
2006	15	0
2007	59	9
2008	14	0
2009	14	0
2010	14	0
2011	15	0
2012	12	10
2013	11	11
2014	9	9
2015	9	9
2016	11	11
2017	23	23
2018	9	14
2019	11	16
2020	7	9
2021	115	278
2022	109	243
2023	837	1585
2024	2407	5323
2025	1905	3793
2026	1018	2662

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4,031.9×

usual = 1×

This month: 565
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~101.0

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun36°

Mon38°

Tue37°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri36°

Right now

early November

This week85

This week is more active than 88% of past years at this time

Year to date1,018

#3 of 26 yearsNormal: 12

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~101 expected · usual 24

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~723 expected · usual 152

likely 25–1,299 · usual 0.0–314

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – early March

Onset: late October
Peak: mid November
End: early March

Critical windows

mid October – mid January
75% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −1%/10Raw: +4%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 494.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2021 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2002
33
season began 4 weeks late
2007
59
peak 5.5× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 8 weeks early
2013
11
season began 6 weeks late
2017
23
season began 4 weeks late
2018
9
season began 3 weeks early
2021
115
7.7× the normal annual activity
peak 11× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 17 weeks early
2022
109
7.3× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 17 weeks early
2023
837
56× the normal annual activity
peak 72× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 20 weeks early
2024
2,407
160× the normal annual activity
peak 164× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 14 weeks early
2025
1,905
127× the normal annual activity
peak 170× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 16 weeks early
2026
1,018
68× the normal annual activity
peak 130× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 12 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson