Oudalan

Next 7 daysExtreme90%

Peak fire period now · 620.8× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – late November
Record year: 20253,714
Trend: +6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +5%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	173	11
2002	30	0
2003	123	19
2004	19	0
2005	18	0
2006	26	1
2007	57	8
2008	41	3
2009	17	0
2010	32	2
2011	20	0
2012	33	32
2013	1	1
2014	8	8
2015	0	0
2016	1	1
2017	8	8
2018	6	7
2019	15	36
2020	247	469
2021	331	631
2022	890	1691
2023	2448	4690
2024	3358	6698
2025	3714	7373
2026	1349	2752

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 1,077.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 873
Usual (median): 0.8
Rank: 3 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~49.9

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sat37°

Sun36°

Mon37°

Tue37°

Wed36°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Right now

early November

This week337

This week is more active than 96% of past years at this time

Year to date1,349

#4 of 26 yearsNormal: 23

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~50 expected · usual 41

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~115 expected · usual 176

likely 30–423 · usual 0.0–428

Season

Ends ~18 January
Peak ~25 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – mid January

Onset: mid October
Peak: late October
End: mid January

Critical windows

late September – late November
79% of annual activity
mid December – late December
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +6%/10Raw: +5%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 446.6× its earlier level (p 0.006). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2007
57
season began 9 weeks late
2014
8
season began 22 weeks late
2017
8
season began 13 weeks late
2022
890
peak 44× stronger than normal
2023
2,448
80× the normal annual activity
peak 151× stronger than normal
2024
3,358
110× the normal annual activity
peak 126× stronger than normal
2025
3,714
122× the normal annual activity
peak 195× stronger than normal
2026
1,349
44× the normal annual activity
peak 121× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Oudalan

Next 7 daysExtreme90%

Peak fire period now · 620.8× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late September – late November
Record year: 20253,714
Trend: +6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +5%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	173	11
2002	30	0
2003	123	19
2004	19	0
2005	18	0
2006	26	1
2007	57	8
2008	41	3
2009	17	0
2010	32	2
2011	20	0
2012	33	32
2013	1	1
2014	8	8
2015	0	0
2016	1	1
2017	8	8
2018	6	7
2019	15	36
2020	247	469
2021	331	631
2022	890	1691
2023	2448	4690
2024	3358	6698
2025	3714	7373
2026	1349	2752

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 1,077.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 873
Usual (median): 0.8
Rank: 3 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~49.9

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sat37°

Sun36°

Mon37°

Tue37°

Wed36°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Right now

early November

This week337

This week is more active than 96% of past years at this time

Year to date1,349

#4 of 26 yearsNormal: 23

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~50 expected · usual 41

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~115 expected · usual 176

likely 30–423 · usual 0.0–428

Season

Ends ~18 January
Peak ~25 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – mid January

Onset: mid October
Peak: late October
End: mid January

Critical windows

late September – late November
79% of annual activity
mid December – late December
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +6%/10Raw: +5%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 446.6× its earlier level (p 0.006). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2007
57
season began 9 weeks late
2014
8
season began 22 weeks late
2017
8
season began 13 weeks late
2022
890
peak 44× stronger than normal
2023
2,448
80× the normal annual activity
peak 151× stronger than normal
2024
3,358
110× the normal annual activity
peak 126× stronger than normal
2025
3,714
122× the normal annual activity
peak 195× stronger than normal
2026
1,349
44× the normal annual activity
peak 121× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson