Séno

Next 7 daysExtreme92%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early October – late December
Record year: 20253,196
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +2%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	27	0
2002	22	0
2003	15	0
2004	23	1
2005	16	0
2006	47	6
2007	17	1
2008	16	0
2009	15	0
2010	15	0
2011	17	0
2012	5	4
2013	5	5
2014	2	2
2015	1	1
2016	0	0
2017	2	2
2018	7	9
2019	3	6
2020	144	288
2021	509	924
2022	341	659
2023	1101	2097
2024	2464	5278
2025	3196	6311
2026	1441	4059

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 821.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 427
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 3 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~101.0

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon37°

Tue37°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Right now

early November

This week24

This week is more active than 88% of past years at this time

Year to date1,441

#2 of 26 yearsNormal: 13

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~101 expected · usual 43

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~658 expected · usual 126

likely 26–1,317 · usual 0.0–296

Season

Ends ~18 January
Peak ~25 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – mid January

Onset: mid October
Peak: late October
End: mid January

Critical windows

early October – late December
88% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +2%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 1,384.4× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2006
47
peak 8.9× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
2013
5
season ended 19 weeks early
2018
7
season began 9 weeks late
2019
3
season began 9 weeks late
2020
144
peak 42× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early
2021
509
31× the normal annual activity
peak 87× stronger than normal
2022
341
peak 47× stronger than normal
season ended 18 weeks early
2023
1,101
67× the normal annual activity
peak 178× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2024
2,464
150× the normal annual activity
peak 386× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2025
3,196
195× the normal annual activity
peak 703× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2026
1,441
88× the normal annual activity
peak 376× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Séno

Next 7 daysExtreme92%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early October – late December
Record year: 20253,196
Trend: +1%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +2%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	27	0
2002	22	0
2003	15	0
2004	23	1
2005	16	0
2006	47	6
2007	17	1
2008	16	0
2009	15	0
2010	15	0
2011	17	0
2012	5	4
2013	5	5
2014	2	2
2015	1	1
2016	0	0
2017	2	2
2018	7	9
2019	3	6
2020	144	288
2021	509	924
2022	341	659
2023	1101	2097
2024	2464	5278
2025	3196	6311
2026	1441	4059

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 821.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 427
Usual (median): 0.5
Rank: 3 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~101.0

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon37°

Tue37°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Right now

early November

This week24

This week is more active than 88% of past years at this time

Year to date1,441

#2 of 26 yearsNormal: 13

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~101 expected · usual 43

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~658 expected · usual 126

likely 26–1,317 · usual 0.0–296

Season

Ends ~18 January
Peak ~25 October

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – mid January

Onset: mid October
Peak: late October
End: mid January

Critical windows

early October – late December
88% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +1%/10Raw: +2%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 1,384.4× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2006
47
peak 8.9× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
2013
5
season ended 19 weeks early
2018
7
season began 9 weeks late
2019
3
season began 9 weeks late
2020
144
peak 42× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early
2021
509
31× the normal annual activity
peak 87× stronger than normal
2022
341
peak 47× stronger than normal
season ended 18 weeks early
2023
1,101
67× the normal annual activity
peak 178× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2024
2,464
150× the normal annual activity
peak 386× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2025
3,196
195× the normal annual activity
peak 703× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2026
1,441
88× the normal annual activity
peak 376× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson