Sanmatenga

Next 7 daysExtreme90%

Peak fire period now · 70.7× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – late December
Record year: 20253,043
Trend: +3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +9%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	124	4
2002	58	0
2003	86	9
2004	93	10
2005	59	2
2006	80	9
2007	42	0
2008	43	1
2009	49	3
2010	67	4
2011	74	5
2012	49	45
2013	44	44
2014	40	40
2015	30	30
2016	32	32
2017	23	23
2018	31	51
2019	42	106
2020	948	1963
2021	2330	4674
2022	796	1563
2023	2761	5769
2024	2523	5373
2025	3043	6150
2026	1385	3744

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 437.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 437
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~111.5

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Right now

early November

This week71

This week is more active than 84% of past years at this time

Year to date1,385

#3 of 26 yearsNormal: 43

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~112 expected · usual 54

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~877 expected · usual 353

likely 54–1,837 · usual 0.3–1,296

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – early March

Onset: late October
Peak: mid November
End: early March

Critical windows

mid October – late December
72% of annual activity
mid January – mid January
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +3%/10Raw: +9%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 432.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2004
93
season began 6 weeks early
2019
42
season ended 11 weeks early
2020
948
16× the normal annual activity
peak 26× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2021
2,330
40× the normal annual activity
peak 65× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2022
796
14× the normal annual activity
peak 16× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2023
2,761
47× the normal annual activity
peak 67× stronger than normal
season ended 9 weeks early
2024
2,523
43× the normal annual activity
peak 48× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early
2025
3,043
52× the normal annual activity
peak 60× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 12 weeks early
2026
1,385
24× the normal annual activity
peak 32× stronger than normal
season ended 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Sanmatenga

Next 7 daysExtreme90%

Peak fire period now · 70.7× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – late December
Record year: 20253,043
Trend: +3%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +9%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	124	4
2002	58	0
2003	86	9
2004	93	10
2005	59	2
2006	80	9
2007	42	0
2008	43	1
2009	49	3
2010	67	4
2011	74	5
2012	49	45
2013	44	44
2014	40	40
2015	30	30
2016	32	32
2017	23	23
2018	31	51
2019	42	106
2020	948	1963
2021	2330	4674
2022	796	1563
2023	2761	5769
2024	2523	5373
2025	3043	6150
2026	1385	3744

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 437.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 437
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 2 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~111.5

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Right now

early November

This week71

This week is more active than 84% of past years at this time

Year to date1,385

#3 of 26 yearsNormal: 43

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~112 expected · usual 54

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~877 expected · usual 353

likely 54–1,837 · usual 0.3–1,296

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – early March

Onset: late October
Peak: mid November
End: early March

Critical windows

mid October – late December
72% of annual activity
mid January – mid January
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +3%/10Raw: +9%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 432.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2004
93
season began 6 weeks early
2019
42
season ended 11 weeks early
2020
948
16× the normal annual activity
peak 26× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2021
2,330
40× the normal annual activity
peak 65× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2022
796
14× the normal annual activity
peak 16× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2023
2,761
47× the normal annual activity
peak 67× stronger than normal
season ended 9 weeks early
2024
2,523
43× the normal annual activity
peak 48× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early
2025
3,043
52× the normal annual activity
peak 60× stronger than normal
season began 6 weeks early
season ended 12 weeks early
2026
1,385
24× the normal annual activity
peak 32× stronger than normal
season ended 13 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson