Gnagna

Next 7 daysExtreme90%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late October – mid December
Record year: 20251,662
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +12%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	218	13
2002	58	4
2003	117	21
2004	87	18
2005	75	17
2006	153	33
2007	29	3
2008	62	8
2009	53	10
2010	29	2
2011	34	5
2012	47	44
2013	36	36
2014	29	29
2015	16	16
2016	17	17
2017	30	30
2018	29	48
2019	17	43
2020	25	61
2021	39	74
2022	7	28
2023	128	257
2024	1189	2466
2025	1662	3252
2026	611	1558

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 988.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 366
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~25.0

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun36°

Mon38°

Tue37°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri36°

Right now

early November

This week97

This week is more active than 100% of past years at this time

Year to date611

#2 of 26 yearsNormal: 28

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~25 expected · usual 9.6

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~309 expected · usual 118

likely 19–770 · usual 0.0–122

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~30 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid March

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: mid March

Critical windows

late October – mid December
49% of annual activity
late December – late January
23% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +12%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 37.5× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

9

2001
218
5.6× the normal annual activity
peak 7.3× stronger than normal
2003
117
season ended 9 weeks early
2006
153
3.9× the normal annual activity
2019
17
season began 10 weeks late
2022
7
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2023
128
peak 7.8× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2024
1,189
30× the normal annual activity
peak 57× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2025
1,662
43× the normal annual activity
peak 55× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2026
611
16× the normal annual activity
peak 44× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Gnagna

Next 7 daysExtreme90%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late October – mid December
Record year: 20251,662
Trend: −13%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +12%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	218	13
2002	58	4
2003	117	21
2004	87	18
2005	75	17
2006	153	33
2007	29	3
2008	62	8
2009	53	10
2010	29	2
2011	34	5
2012	47	44
2013	36	36
2014	29	29
2015	16	16
2016	17	17
2017	30	30
2018	29	48
2019	17	43
2020	25	61
2021	39	74
2022	7	28
2023	128	257
2024	1189	2466
2025	1662	3252
2026	611	1558

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 988.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 366
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~25.0

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun36°

Mon38°

Tue37°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri36°

Right now

early November

This week97

This week is more active than 100% of past years at this time

Year to date611

#2 of 26 yearsNormal: 28

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~25 expected · usual 9.6

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~309 expected · usual 118

likely 19–770 · usual 0.0–122

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~30 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid March

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: mid March

Critical windows

late October – mid December
49% of annual activity
late December – late January
23% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −13%/10Raw: +12%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 37.5× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.15).

Unusual years

9

2001
218
5.6× the normal annual activity
peak 7.3× stronger than normal
2003
117
season ended 9 weeks early
2006
153
3.9× the normal annual activity
2019
17
season began 10 weeks late
2022
7
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2023
128
peak 7.8× stronger than normal
season ended 21 weeks early
2024
1,189
30× the normal annual activity
peak 57× stronger than normal
season ended 14 weeks early
2025
1,662
43× the normal annual activity
peak 55× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2026
611
16× the normal annual activity
peak 44× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson