Soum

Next 7 daysExtreme92%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – late December
Record year: 20232,593
Trend: +9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +7%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	37	0
2002	29	0
2003	52	3
2004	19	0
2005	18	0
2006	18	0
2007	19	0
2008	23	1
2009	24	1
2010	41	4
2011	19	0
2012	7	6
2013	12	12
2014	2	2
2015	4	4
2016	7	7
2017	2	2
2018	28	48
2019	79	179
2020	1758	3442
2021	1633	3131
2022	1673	3477
2023	2593	5378
2024	1769	3959
2025	2431	4669
2026	1737	4951

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 1,244.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 510
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 5 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~167.3

This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon37°

Tue37°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Right now

early November

This week184

This week is more active than 92% of past years at this time

Year to date1,737

#2 of 26 yearsNormal: 16

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~167 expected · usual 41

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~795 expected · usual 249

likely 41–1,538 · usual 0.0–669

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~1 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – mid February

Onset: late October
Peak: early November
End: mid February

Critical windows

mid October – late December
75% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +9%/10Raw: +7%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 2,122.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2013
12
season began 8 weeks late
2015
4
season began 24 weeks late
2019
79
peak 6.8× stronger than normal
2020
1,758
73× the normal annual activity
peak 120× stronger than normal
season ended 18 weeks early
2021
1,633
68× the normal annual activity
peak 112× stronger than normal
season ended 10 weeks early
2022
1,673
69× the normal annual activity
peak 121× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2023
2,593
107× the normal annual activity
peak 208× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2024
1,769
73× the normal annual activity
peak 157× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2025
2,431
101× the normal annual activity
peak 207× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 12 weeks early
2026
1,737
72× the normal annual activity
peak 180× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson

Soum

Next 7 daysExtreme92%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – late December
Record year: 20232,593
Trend: +9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +7%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	37	0
2002	29	0
2003	52	3
2004	19	0
2005	18	0
2006	18	0
2007	19	0
2008	23	1
2009	24	1
2010	41	4
2011	19	0
2012	7	6
2013	12	12
2014	2	2
2015	4	4
2016	7	7
2017	2	2
2018	28	48
2019	79	179
2020	1758	3442
2021	1633	3131
2022	1673	3477
2023	2593	5378
2024	1769	3959
2025	2431	4669
2026	1737	4951

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 1,244.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 510
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 5 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~167.3

This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon37°

Tue37°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

Right now

early November

This week184

This week is more active than 92% of past years at this time

Year to date1,737

#2 of 26 yearsNormal: 16

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~167 expected · usual 41

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~795 expected · usual 249

likely 41–1,538 · usual 0.0–669

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~1 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – mid February

Onset: late October
Peak: early November
End: mid February

Critical windows

mid October – late December
75% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +9%/10Raw: +7%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 2,122.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2013
12
season began 8 weeks late
2015
4
season began 24 weeks late
2019
79
peak 6.8× stronger than normal
2020
1,758
73× the normal annual activity
peak 120× stronger than normal
season ended 18 weeks early
2021
1,633
68× the normal annual activity
peak 112× stronger than normal
season ended 10 weeks early
2022
1,673
69× the normal annual activity
peak 121× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2023
2,593
107× the normal annual activity
peak 208× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2024
1,769
73× the normal annual activity
peak 157× stronger than normal
season ended 20 weeks early
2025
2,431
101× the normal annual activity
peak 207× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks early
season ended 12 weeks early
2026
1,737
72× the normal annual activity
peak 180× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson