Syunik

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season: about 13 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early September – early October
Record year: 2010879
Trend: −9%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +80%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	391	42
2002	112	20
2003	104	25
2004	566	150
2005	119	28
2006	263	81
2007	74	11
2008	250	41
2009	51	5
2010	879	151
2011	89	18
2012	240	211
2013	433	433
2014	124	124
2015	120	120
2016	264	264
2017	218	218
2018	211	440
2019	226	418
2020	107	219
2021	212	408
2022	232	401
2023	83	150
2024	66	164
2025	243	721
2026	68	194

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.16×

Raw data

1.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 6.2
Rank: 21 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.16×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (18 mm)↓

Sat9°

Sun9°

Mon3°

Tue3°

Wed4°

Thu5°

Fri7°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 5.2

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~27 expected · usual 58

likely 5.0–113 · usual 0.0–144

Season

Ends ~8 February
Peak ~20 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid August – early February

Onset: mid August
Peak: mid September
End: early February

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early September – early October
26% of annual activity
late November – early December
17% of annual activity
late October – early November
14% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −9%/10Raw: +80%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.9× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

3

2010
879
peak 7.9× stronger than normal
2012
240
season began 11 weeks late
2020
107
season began 10 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson