Ararat

Next 7 daysLow7%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – late March
Record year: 2017193
Trend: +2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +99%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	122	9
2002	154	18
2003	99	10
2004	172	27
2005	113	14
2006	149	23
2007	103	15
2008	107	16
2009	130	19
2010	126	18
2011	137	28
2012	116	108
2013	119	119
2014	147	147
2015	145	145
2016	149	149
2017	193	193
2018	127	190
2019	180	335
2020	136	253
2021	106	219
2022	106	197
2023	123	238
2024	100	319
2025	173	594
2026	141	458

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.3×

Raw data

› 9.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 3.0
Usual (median): 2.3
Rank: 10 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 9.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 1.3×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Humid air (66%)↓

Sat12°

Sun14°

Mon11°

Tue10°

Wed11°

Thu11°

Fri11°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 0.9

Next 3 months

About usual

~6.0 expected · usual 5.2

likely 1.9–16 · usual 0.0–13

Season

Starts ~15 February
Peak ~15 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid February – early October

Onset: mid February
Peak: mid March
End: early October

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid February – late March
31% of annual activity
mid July – mid August
23% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +2%/10Raw: +99%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 9.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

3

2010
126
season ended 6 weeks late
2012
116
season ended 6 weeks early
2014
147
season ended 10 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson