Data through 13 November 2026 · made 15 November 2026
Fire report
Ararat
ArmeniaQuiet now. The season usually starts mid February
November vs a usual year
About normal
Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001
ODLAR
1.3×
Raw data
› 9.0×
usual = 1×
- This month
- 3.0
- Usual (median)
- 2.3
- Rank
- 10 of 26
Raw satellite data would say 9.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 1.3×.
Key numbers
- Annual mean
- 133
- Peak period
- mid February – late March
- Record year
- 2017
- 193
- Trend
- +2% / 10
- on raw data: +99%
Burning calendar, week by week (harmonized detections)
Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage
25-year history
The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.
Harmonized: +2%/10Raw: +99%/10
HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty
Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 9.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).
What's ahead
From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.
Next 7 days
Low~0.3 expected · usual 0.9
Next 3 months
About usual
~6.0 expected · usual 5.2
likely 1.9–16 · usual 0.0–13
Season
- Starts ~15 February
- Peak ~15 March
ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week
How sure is this?
- Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
- Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
- Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
- Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.
About this report
Counts are NASA FIRMS active-fire detections (MODIS since 2000, VIIRS since 2012) put on one scale (harmonized), so years before and after 2012 can be compared.
A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires. Clouds and smoke hide some fires; hatched weeks had no satellite observation.
Weather: Open-Meteo forecast and NASA POWER history. Forecast reliability is from tests on past years the models never saw.
Source: ODLAR, https://odlar.app/en/region/am-ararat