Vayots Dzor

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – early October
Record year: 201488
Trend: +5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +85%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	26	1
2002	15	1
2003	10	0
2004	38	13
2005	24	7
2006	14	1
2007	11	0
2008	21	3
2009	11	0
2010	42	16
2011	35	9
2012	27	27
2013	44	44
2014	88	88
2015	32	32
2016	20	20
2017	46	46
2018	56	104
2019	36	66
2020	11	26
2021	10	29
2022	35	55
2023	28	80
2024	6	24
2025	23	63
2026	8	19

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 18 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (73%)↓

Sat11°

Sun12°

Mon8°

Tue7°

Wed8°

Thu8°

Fri8°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.4

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.3 expected · usual 3.6

likely 0.0–4.9 · usual 0.0–5.8

Season

Starts ~15 March
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid March – early November

Onset: mid March
Peak: early September
End: early November

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early August – early October
38% of annual activity
mid March – late March
13% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +5%/10Raw: +85%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 10.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.40).

Unusual years

10

2005
24
season ended 8 weeks late
2010
42
season began 11 weeks late
season ended 10 weeks late
2014
88
peak 4.8× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2015
32
season began 18 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks early
2016
20
season began 21 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2017
46
season ended 10 weeks early
2019
36
season ended 7 weeks early
2021
10
season ended 10 weeks early
2022
35
season began 25 weeks late
2023
28
season ended 6 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson