Armavir

Next 7 daysLow3%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – late March
Record year: 2001157
Trend: +2%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +105%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	157	25
2002	120	24
2003	62	9
2004	114	28
2005	74	15
2006	121	24
2007	51	4
2008	92	12
2009	111	18
2010	69	8
2011	102	15
2012	75	73
2013	84	84
2014	117	117
2015	74	74
2016	77	77
2017	88	88
2018	77	126
2019	156	276
2020	113	234
2021	111	238
2022	88	193
2023	99	202
2024	77	238
2025	135	415
2026	100	309

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.82×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.2
Usual (median): 1.4
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (74%)↓

Sat14°

Sun15°

Mon13°

Tue12°

Wed13°

Thu11°

Fri11°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

About usual

~4.2 expected · usual 5.7

likely 1.9–15 · usual 0.0–13

Season

Starts ~15 February
Peak ~1 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid February – mid September

Onset: mid February
Peak: early March
End: mid September

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early February – late March
42% of annual activity
early July – early August
20% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +2%/10Raw: +105%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 8.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.82).

Unusual years

11

2001
157
season ended 5 weeks late
2009
111
season ended 3 weeks early
2010
69
season ended 4 weeks late
2012
75
season ended 7 weeks early
2014
117
season ended 9 weeks early
2015
74
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 3 weeks early
2017
88
season began 3 weeks late
2018
77
season began 3 weeks early
2020
113
season ended 4 weeks early
2024
77
season ended 6 weeks late
2025
135
season ended 7 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson