Kotayk

Next 7 daysLow4%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early May

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid August – early November
Record year: 2018342
Trend: +21%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	68	1
2002	48	0
2003	37	0
2004	74	10
2005	49	1
2006	51	2
2007	38	0
2008	115	23
2009	42	2
2010	157	36
2011	109	22
2012	130	129
2013	132	132
2014	63	63
2015	45	45
2016	148	148
2017	186	186
2018	342	717
2019	77	156
2020	50	110
2021	76	160
2022	186	396
2023	69	140
2024	29	98
2025	171	544
2026	41	121

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.43×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.0
Usual (median): 2.4
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (15 mm)↓

Sat9°

Sun9°

Mon6°

Tue6°

Wed6°

Thu5°

Fri6°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 2.8

Next 3 months

About usual

~5.0 expected · usual 5.6

likely 1.9–12 · usual 0.0–15

Season

Starts ~10 May
Peak ~13 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early May – late October

Onset: early May
Peak: mid September
End: late October

Critical windows

mid August – early November
66% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +21%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 24.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.10).

Unusual years

4

2016
148
season began 15 weeks late
2018
342
4.6× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks late
2021
76
season ended 7 weeks early
2022
186
season began 12 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson