Lori

Next 7 daysLow3%

Peak fire period now · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – mid December
Record year: 20101,500
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +43%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	194	27
2002	81	12
2003	41	6
2004	262	51
2005	172	59
2006	100	22
2007	40	9
2008	351	85
2009	108	26
2010	1500	258
2011	131	41
2012	239	234
2013	77	77
2014	70	70
2015	203	203
2016	120	120
2017	241	241
2018	75	150
2019	439	937
2020	50	94
2021	21	51
2022	35	89
2023	137	319
2024	61	202
2025	633	1671
2026	27	89

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 2.8
Rank: 23 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~1.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Humid air (64%)↓

Sat14°

Sun15°

Mon7°

Tue6°

Wed11°

Thu11°

Fri12°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~1.1 expected · usual 49

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~32 expected · usual 113

likely 1.7–168 · usual 0.0–263

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early September – mid March

Onset: early September
Peak: mid November
End: mid March

Critical windows

early November – mid December
56% of annual activity
late August – mid September
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +43%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2010 to 9.0× its earlier level (p 0.004). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.79).

Unusual years

9

2004
262
season began 6 weeks late
2008
351
season began 13 weeks late
2009
108
season began 6 weeks late
2010
1,500
13× the normal annual activity
peak 35× stronger than normal
season began 10 weeks late
season ended 15 weeks early
2012
239
season began 13 weeks late
2015
203
season ended 12 weeks early
2019
439
season began 6 weeks late
2020
50
season began 7 weeks late
2025
633
season began 11 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson