Tavush

Next 7 daysLow6%

Fire season: about 17 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early September
Record year: 2010343
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +79%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	188	24
2002	50	3
2003	74	12
2004	96	17
2005	134	31
2006	208	57
2007	133	28
2008	255	81
2009	59	13
2010	342	93
2011	130	26
2012	118	112
2013	122	122
2014	202	202
2015	234	234
2016	76	76
2017	235	235
2018	79	174
2019	157	297
2020	117	227
2021	59	115
2022	66	137
2023	37	81
2024	13	36
2025	194	583
2026	17	40

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.3
Rank: 22 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.7

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (11 °C)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat17°

Sun16°

Mon6°

Tue3°

Wed12°

Thu13°

Fri14°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.7 expected · usual 6.1

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~13 expected · usual 34

likely 1.2–67 · usual 0.0–90

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~9 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late July – early March

Onset: late July
Peak: early August
End: early March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early September
43% of annual activity
early November – late November
15% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +79%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.4× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

2

2020
117
season began 13 weeks late
2023
37
season began 13 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson