Zoundwéogo

Next 7 daysLow4%

Peak fire period now · 0.1× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – late January
Record year: 20101,058
Trend: −33%/ 10significant · on raw data: +74%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	969	87
2002	775	139
2003	901	221
2004	946	228
2005	1016	248
2006	713	148
2007	974	235
2008	925	207
2009	998	251
2010	1058	265
2011	959	233
2012	757	654
2013	784	784
2014	637	637
2015	586	586
2016	751	751
2017	684	684
2018	432	673
2019	409	832
2020	341	622
2021	645	1196
2022	366	738
2023	546	1052
2024	645	1337
2025	380	811
2026	298	853

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.46×

Raw data

2.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 14
Usual (median): 31
Rank: 18 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.7× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.46×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~11.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (17%)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed36°

Thu35°

Fri36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~11 expected · usual 54

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~462 expected · usual 712

likely 333–635 · usual 231–1,209

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~21 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid February

Onset: early November
Peak: mid December
End: mid February

Critical windows

early November – late January
79% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −33%/10Raw: +74%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2014 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

3

2020
341
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
2022
366
season began 3 weeks late
2026
298
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson