Zondoma

Next 7 daysVery high67%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – late January
Record year: 2023341
Trend: −25%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +58%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	291	28
2002	120	11
2003	193	40
2004	150	21
2005	153	28
2006	162	26
2007	113	14
2008	140	22
2009	167	29
2010	207	41
2011	134	21
2012	99	93
2013	154	154
2014	218	218
2015	148	148
2016	142	142
2017	58	58
2018	67	88
2019	77	148
2020	29	56
2021	34	59
2022	47	98
2023	341	690
2024	192	383
2025	213	398
2026	122	376

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 72.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 61
Usual (median): 0.8
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~15.3

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~15 expected · usual 8.8

Next 3 months

About usual

~132 expected · usual 117

likely 36–216 · usual 9.7–293

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~14 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – mid March

Onset: mid November
Peak: mid December
End: mid March

Critical windows

early November – late January
70% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −25%/10Raw: +58%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.6× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

13

2001
291
peak 2.9× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
2007
113
season began 3 weeks early
2013
154
season began 3 weeks late
2014
218
peak 2.5× stronger than normal
2017
58
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2019
77
season began 3 weeks late
2020
29
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2021
34
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 12 weeks late
2022
47
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2023
341
2.3× the normal annual activity
peak 3.7× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 13 weeks early
2024
192
season began 4 weeks early
2025
213
season began 6 weeks early
2026
122
season began 5 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson