Ziro

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early February
Record year: 20053,852
Trend: −41%/ 10significant · on raw data: +75%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3642	380
2002	3417	747
2003	3265	796
2004	3336	804
2005	3852	919
2006	2596	607
2007	2222	514
2008	2670	631
2009	2540	607
2010	3068	725
2011	2916	705
2012	1852	1494
2013	2174	2174
2014	1795	1795
2015	1984	1984
2016	2195	2195
2017	2447	2447
2018	1446	2146
2019	1707	3486
2020	1526	3198
2021	1892	3752
2022	1132	2312
2023	1491	2999
2024	1753	3603
2025	1118	2262
2026	769	2299

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.45×

Raw data

2.9×

usual = 1×

This month: 19
Usual (median): 41
Rank: 18 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.9× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.45×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~50.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (24%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun34°

Mon35°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu34°

Fri34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~50 expected · usual 126

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,737 expected · usual 2,707

likely 1,114–2,452 · usual 1,137–5,051

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – early February

Onset: mid November
Peak: early December
End: early February

Critical windows

early November – early February
89% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −41%/10Raw: +75%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2001
3,642
season ended 3 weeks early
2002
3,417
season ended 3 weeks early
2003
3,265
season ended 4 weeks early
2004
3,336
season ended 3 weeks early
2005
3,852
season ended 5 weeks early
2006
2,596
season ended 3 weeks early
2026
769
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson