Yatenga

Next 7 daysExtreme88%

Peak fire period now · 48.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – late December
Record year: 20251,498
Trend: +11%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +39%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	111	2
2002	84	1
2003	97	10
2004	74	4
2005	85	8
2006	103	14
2007	68	1
2008	115	13
2009	102	10
2010	73	2
2011	83	4
2012	42	37
2013	99	99
2014	74	74
2015	65	65
2016	62	62
2017	70	70
2018	69	113
2019	75	170
2020	179	323
2021	125	211
2022	126	216
2023	450	867
2024	1191	2405
2025	1498	2986
2026	920	2372

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 170.2×

Raw data

› 433.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 379
Usual (median): 2.2
Rank: 2 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 433.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 170.2×.

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~72.9

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat38°

Sun36°

Mon37°

Tue38°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~73 expected · usual 17

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~503 expected · usual 109

likely 28–859 · usual 2.0–252

Season

Ends ~26 April
Peak ~8 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – late April

Onset: late October
Peak: early November
End: late April

Critical windows

mid October – late December
55% of annual activity
mid January – mid January
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +11%/10Raw: +39%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 66.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2020 (p 0.02): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

12

2005
85
season began 5 weeks early
2012
42
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks early
2014
74
season began 6 weeks late
2015
65
season began 3 weeks late
2016
62
season began 4 weeks late
2018
69
season began 3 weeks late
2020
179
2.1× the normal annual activity
peak 4.4× stronger than normal
season ended 15 weeks early
2022
126
season began 6 weeks early
2023
450
5.3× the normal annual activity
peak 9.3× stronger than normal
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 17 weeks early
2024
1,191
14× the normal annual activity
peak 18× stronger than normal
season ended 10 weeks early
2025
1,498
18× the normal annual activity
peak 27× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 14 weeks early
2026
920
11× the normal annual activity
peak 21× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 16 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson