Yagha

Next 7 daysVery high78%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – late December
Record year: 2023685
Trend: +10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +22%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	22	0
2002	20	0
2003	20	3
2004	20	2
2005	17	0
2006	25	3
2007	22	1
2008	19	2
2009	16	0
2010	16	0
2011	17	0
2012	15	14
2013	25	25
2014	10	10
2015	9	9
2016	10	10
2017	12	12
2018	14	28
2019	34	55
2020	26	58
2021	152	311
2022	128	305
2023	685	1429
2024	268	605
2025	566	1146
2026	491	1234

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 1,797.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 270
Usual (median): 0.1
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~21.4

This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon37°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~21 expected · usual 7.5

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~283 expected · usual 33

likely 18–297 · usual 0.0–78

Season

Ends ~19 April
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – mid April

Onset: late October
Peak: mid November
End: mid April

Critical windows

mid October – late December
72% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +10%/10Raw: +22%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 286.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.006): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2015
9
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2021
152
7.4× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 18 weeks early
2022
128
6.3× the normal annual activity
peak 10× stronger than normal
season ended 17 weeks early
2023
685
34× the normal annual activity
peak 84× stronger than normal
season ended 19 weeks early
2024
268
13× the normal annual activity
peak 29× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2025
566
28× the normal annual activity
peak 50× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2026
491
24× the normal annual activity
peak 80× stronger than normal
season ended 29 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson