Tuy

Next 7 daysLow9%

Fire season: about 13 weeks left · 0.2× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid November – early February
Record year: 20023,881
Trend: −37%/ 10significant · on raw data: +75%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3345	372
2002	3880	878
2003	2976	743
2004	3764	967
2005	2602	647
2006	2347	565
2007	3131	713
2008	2344	517
2009	2953	715
2010	2951	755
2011	3363	857
2012	1993	1608
2013	2498	2498
2014	2150	2150
2015	1617	1617
2016	2738	2738
2017	2494	2494
2018	1360	1906
2019	1652	3282
2020	1638	3258
2021	1422	2785
2022	925	1841
2023	1689	3545
2024	2255	4556
2025	1546	3030
2026	1124	3421

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.73×

Raw data

2.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 39
Usual (median): 53
Rank: 19 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.6× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.73×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~50.9

Dry air (26%)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun35°

Mon35°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~51 expected · usual 99

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,494 expected · usual 2,379

likely 971–2,228 · usual 815–3,978

Season

Ends ~8 February
Peak ~21 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – early February

Onset: early November
Peak: mid December
End: early February

Critical windows

mid November – early February
81% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −37%/10Raw: +75%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 3.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2004
3,764
season began 3 weeks early
2005
2,602
season ended 3 weeks early
2016
2,738
season ended 3 weeks late
2018
1,360
season began 3 weeks late
2019
1,652
season began 4 weeks late
2020
1,638
season began 3 weeks late
2021
1,422
season began 3 weeks late
2022
925
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2026
1,124
season began 7 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson