Tapoa

Next 7 daysModerate23%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late October – mid January
Record year: 20017,918
Trend: −8%/ 10significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7918	946
2002	5628	1491
2003	5532	1674
2004	5823	1720
2005	5828	1806
2006	6343	1865
2007	5638	1632
2008	5824	1755
2009	5526	1624
2010	5955	1841
2011	5526	1665
2012	5131	4987
2013	5270	5270
2014	4736	4736
2015	4758	4758
2016	5246	5246
2017	5151	5151
2018	4986	8777
2019	5066	10030
2020	5354	10582
2021	5374	10585
2022	4070	8233
2023	5493	10907
2024	5529	11285
2025	5134	10407
2026	2755	6808

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.8×

Raw data

› 8.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 1,266
Usual (median): 453
Rank: 3 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 8.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 2.8×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~579.8

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (15%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun36°

Mon37°

Tue37°

Wed35°

Thu36°

Fri36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~580 expected · usual 711

Next 3 months

About usual

~3,582 expected · usual 3,887

likely 1,667–4,958 · usual 2,115–5,736

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid February

Onset: early November
Peak: mid November
End: mid February

Critical windows

late October – mid January
78% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −8%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2006
6,342
season ended 3 weeks late
2008
5,824
season ended 3 weeks late
2011
5,526
season ended 6 weeks late
2013
5,270
season ended 4 weeks early
2018
4,986
season ended 3 weeks late
2023
5,493
season ended 3 weeks early
2026
2,755
only 0.5× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson