Sourou

Next 7 daysHigh51%

Peak fire period now · 2.7× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – early January
Record year: 20252,042
Trend: +7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +105%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1690	148
2002	952	128
2003	1276	234
2004	1538	291
2005	1395	268
2006	955	157
2007	1200	206
2008	1483	284
2009	1091	197
2010	1298	237
2011	1132	193
2012	1159	1115
2013	1617	1617
2014	1407	1407
2015	1343	1343
2016	1245	1245
2017	1287	1287
2018	907	1584
2019	1352	2749
2020	951	1960
2021	1460	3026
2022	1126	2249
2023	2015	4053
2024	1506	3151
2025	2042	4042
2026	1841	4584

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.3×

Raw data

› 13.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 750
Usual (median): 175
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 13.3× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 4.3×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~124.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (14%)↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~124 expected · usual 93

Next 3 months

About usual

~754 expected · usual 830

likely 403–941 · usual 301–1,361

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~8 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – early March

Onset: mid October
Peak: early November
End: early March

Critical windows

mid October – early January
74% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +7%/10Raw: +105%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 7.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

6

2002
952
season ended 8 weeks late
2012
1,159
season ended 6 weeks early
2018
907
season ended 6 weeks late
2023
2,015
1.6× the normal annual activity
peak 2.0× stronger than normal
2025
2,042
1.6× the normal annual activity
peak 2.4× stronger than normal
2026
1,841
peak 2.9× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson