Sissili

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early February
Record year: 20046,356
Trend: −35%/ 10significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5902	544
2002	5276	1277
2003	4928	1295
2004	6356	1676
2005	5740	1550
2006	4324	1139
2007	4261	1074
2008	4470	1127
2009	4390	1156
2010	5337	1429
2011	4695	1230
2012	3470	2909
2013	3474	3474
2014	3397	3397
2015	3398	3398
2016	4076	4076
2017	4479	4479
2018	2982	4479
2019	3052	6106
2020	3116	6329
2021	3298	6433
2022	2317	4807
2023	2580	5109
2024	2804	5542
2025	1362	2892
2026	1549	4683

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.33×

Raw data

1.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 6.2
Usual (median): 19
Rank: 18 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.33×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~35.5

Dry air (27%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun34°

Mon34°

Tue35°

Wed34°

Thu34°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~36 expected · usual 266

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~3,536 expected · usual 4,907

likely 1,665–4,687 · usual 2,537–7,734

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – late January

Onset: mid November
Peak: early December
End: late January

Critical windows

early November – early February
92% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −35%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2001
5,902
season ended 3 weeks early
2002
5,276
season ended 3 weeks early
2003
4,928
season ended 3 weeks early
2004
6,356
peak 2.5× stronger than normal
season ended 3 weeks early
2005
5,740
season ended 4 weeks early
2006
4,324
season ended 4 weeks early
2025
1,362
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2026
1,549
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson