Sanguié

Next 7 daysLow7%

Peak fire period now · 0.3× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – mid January
Record year: 20032,703
Trend: −31%/ 10significant · on raw data: +82%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2544	228
2002	1910	354
2003	2703	597
2004	2041	405
2005	2342	505
2006	2063	433
2007	1126	198
2008	2077	414
2009	2195	452
2010	2016	422
2011	2184	458
2012	1536	1444
2013	1947	1947
2014	1851	1851
2015	1470	1470
2016	2020	2020
2017	1454	1454
2018	1330	2559
2019	1589	3125
2020	1209	2480
2021	1369	2779
2022	1113	2236
2023	1333	2662
2024	1069	2158
2025	1150	2335
2026	602	1653

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.57×

Raw data

2.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 81
Usual (median): 141
Rank: 18 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.7× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.57×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~91.9

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (23%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon35°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~92 expected · usual 199

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,163 expected · usual 1,562

likely 943–1,725 · usual 727–2,463

Season

Ends ~25 January
Peak ~23 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – late January

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: late January

Critical windows

mid October – mid January
86% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −31%/10Raw: +82%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 4.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2017 (p 0.006): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2003
2,703
season ended 3 weeks early
2005
2,342
season ended 4 weeks early
2007
1,126
season ended 3 weeks late
2010
2,016
season ended 3 weeks early
2023
1,333
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
602
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson