Poni

Next 7 daysLow17%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early February
Record year: 20017,282
Trend: −48%/ 10significant · on raw data: +58%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	7282	685
2002	6042	1414
2003	5605	1481
2004	6593	1759
2005	6476	1732
2006	5843	1580
2007	5713	1477
2008	6253	1599
2009	5889	1526
2010	6762	1811
2011	6268	1669
2012	5252	4446
2013	4803	4803
2014	3669	3669
2015	3009	3009
2016	3914	3914
2017	3658	3658
2018	2069	3282
2019	2531	4879
2020	2841	5668
2021	2278	4453
2022	2238	4525
2023	2535	5138
2024	3823	7534
2025	2040	4109
2026	1895	5740

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.89×

Raw data

› 4.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 109
Usual (median): 121
Rank: 14 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 4.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.89×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~161.9

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (20%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue37°

Wed37°

Thu37°

Fri37°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~162 expected · usual 214

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~3,645 expected · usual 5,020

likely 1,605–5,251 · usual 1,663–9,656

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~21 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – early February

Onset: mid November
Peak: mid December
End: early February

Critical windows

early November – early February
85% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −48%/10Raw: +58%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

5

2007
5,712
season ended 3 weeks late
2018
2,069
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2024
3,823
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
2,040
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2026
1,895
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson