Passoré

Next 7 daysLow20%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – mid February
Record year: 2009450
Trend: −39%/ 10significant · on raw data: +79%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	319	21
2002	237	18
2003	402	73
2004	325	58
2005	367	56
2006	214	33
2007	245	45
2008	253	39
2009	450	80
2010	347	61
2011	301	51
2012	158	128
2013	179	179
2014	212	212
2015	316	316
2016	331	331
2017	228	228
2018	199	301
2019	121	254
2020	131	237
2021	196	373
2022	126	232
2023	162	345
2024	70	138
2025	100	221
2026	82	236

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 8.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 17
Usual (median): 2.1
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~2.4

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Dry air (18%)↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~2.4 expected · usual 4.4

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~89 expected · usual 181

likely 34–207 · usual 18–372

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early April

Onset: late November
Peak: early December
End: early April

Critical windows

late November – mid February
69% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −39%/10Raw: +79%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 4.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.005): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

9

2002
237
season began 3 weeks late
2005
367
peak 3.1× stronger than normal
2013
179
season began 5 weeks late
2014
212
season began 3 weeks late
2020
131
season began 3 weeks late
2023
162
season began 3 weeks early
2024
70
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2025
100
season began 6 weeks early
2026
82
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson