Oubritenga

Next 7 daysLow7%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – late February
Record year: 2004172
Trend: −38%/ 10significant · on raw data: +73%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	92	8
2002	49	2
2003	132	29
2004	172	46
2005	80	11
2006	101	22
2007	79	12
2008	80	13
2009	118	23
2010	123	33
2011	83	14
2012	73	69
2013	60	60
2014	58	58
2015	38	38
2016	72	72
2017	93	93
2018	98	139
2019	54	115
2020	43	81
2021	114	233
2022	68	124
2023	35	76
2024	21	42
2025	13	29
2026	20	61

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.8
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 6 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.5

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.5 expected · usual 1.4

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~2.1 expected · usual 39

likely 1.1–83 · usual 0.4–96

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~1 February

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – mid April

Onset: early December
Peak: early February
End: mid April

Critical windows

late November – late February
64% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −38%/10Raw: +73%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2003
132
peak 2.9× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2004
172
peak 4.2× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2023
35
season ended 8 weeks early
2024
21
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
2025
13
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2026
20
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson