Noumbiel

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early February
Record year: 20113,176
Trend: −39%/ 10significant · on raw data: +63%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3086	330
2002	2593	685
2003	2461	722
2004	2451	735
2005	2912	859
2006	2013	606
2007	2750	802
2008	2482	723
2009	2833	817
2010	2644	777
2011	3176	952
2012	2223	1949
2013	2138	2138
2014	1797	1797
2015	1707	1707
2016	2100	2100
2017	1936	1936
2018	1705	3127
2019	1479	2939
2020	1828	3514
2021	1324	2616
2022	1329	2572
2023	1183	2278
2024	1251	2545
2025	639	1349
2026	359	1233

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.52×

Raw data

2.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 13
Usual (median): 24
Rank: 17 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.52×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~14.1

Dry air (20%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue37°

Wed37°

Thu37°

Fri37°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~14 expected · usual 107

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,415 expected · usual 2,592

likely 957–2,059 · usual 1,051–4,397

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – late January

Onset: mid November
Peak: early December
End: late January

Critical windows

early November – early February
93% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −39%/10Raw: +63%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2014 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

4

2007
2,750
season began 3 weeks late
2024
1,251
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
639
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2026
359
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 7 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson