Nayala

Next 7 daysHigh46%

Peak fire period now · 0.7× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – early January
Record year: 20031,943
Trend: −20%/ 10significant · on raw data: +94%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1939	185
2002	1349	250
2003	1943	418
2004	1560	325
2005	1509	314
2006	1286	265
2007	1084	182
2008	1425	291
2009	1593	355
2010	1792	390
2011	1450	307
2012	1428	1349
2013	1469	1469
2014	1398	1398
2015	1181	1181
2016	1284	1284
2017	1372	1372
2018	1070	2054
2019	1164	2354
2020	840	1735
2021	1256	2517
2022	1064	1991
2023	1196	2459
2024	798	1816
2025	1511	3038
2026	990	2509

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.5×

Raw data

› 8.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 480
Usual (median): 188
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 8.3× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 2.5×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~123.0

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (14%)↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~123 expected · usual 102

Next 3 months

About usual

~904 expected · usual 1,029

likely 485–1,139 · usual 444–1,644

Season

Ends ~1 February
Peak ~30 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – early February

Onset: late October
Peak: late November
End: early February

Critical windows

mid October – early January
83% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −20%/10Raw: +94%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p 0.010): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2001
1,939
peak 1.9× stronger than normal
2003
1,943
peak 1.6× stronger than normal
2010
1,792
peak 1.9× stronger than normal
2020
840
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2024
798
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2025
1,511
peak 1.6× stronger than normal
2026
990
season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson