Nahouri

Next 7 daysLow5%

Peak fire period now · 0.5× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – late January
Record year: 20013,325
Trend: −26%/ 10significant · on raw data: +76%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3325	354
2002	2400	660
2003	2619	775
2004	2836	859
2005	2778	834
2006	2417	736
2007	2428	694
2008	2541	800
2009	2829	868
2010	2380	736
2011	2460	704
2012	2151	1974
2013	2329	2329
2014	2055	2055
2015	1646	1646
2016	2450	2450
2017	2347	2347
2018	1835	3295
2019	1763	3489
2020	1545	3118
2021	1817	3702
2022	1462	2818
2023	1783	3596
2024	1923	3793
2025	1370	2860
2026	764	2057

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.97×

Raw data

› 5.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 86
Usual (median): 89
Rank: 14 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 5.2× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.97×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~85.5

Dry air (26%)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Strong wind (3.1 m/s)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~85 expected · usual 288

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,403 expected · usual 1,971

likely 974–1,819 · usual 1,079–3,080

Season

Ends ~8 February
Peak ~23 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – early February

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: early February

Critical windows

early November – late January
85% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −26%/10Raw: +76%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

2

2025
1,370
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
2026
764
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson