Mouhoun

Next 7 daysLow20%

Peak fire period now · 0.4× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – mid January
Record year: 20034,078
Trend: −47%/ 10significant · on raw data: +81%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	3963	321
2002	3913	680
2003	4078	796
2004	3462	672
2005	2870	567
2006	3429	641
2007	2378	446
2008	2373	443
2009	2356	427
2010	2153	397
2011	2577	491
2012	1886	1576
2013	2121	2121
2014	1801	1801
2015	1287	1287
2016	1984	1984
2017	2049	2049
2018	1608	2538
2019	1601	3225
2020	1429	2843
2021	1302	2642
2022	951	1961
2023	1414	2848
2024	1553	3095
2025	1817	3640
2026	1012	2804

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.75×

Raw data

2.5×

usual = 1×

This month: 109
Usual (median): 145
Rank: 19 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.5× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.75×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~58.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (23%)↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon35°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~58 expected · usual 97

Next 3 months

About usual

~1,475 expected · usual 1,724

likely 944–1,981 · usual 721–2,931

Season

Ends ~22 February
Peak ~21 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid October – late February

Onset: mid October
Peak: mid December
End: late February

Critical windows

mid October – mid January
69% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −47%/10Raw: +81%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

11

2001
3,963
peak 2.7× stronger than normal
2002
3,913
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
2003
4,078
peak 2.6× stronger than normal
season ended 3 weeks early
2004
3,462
season began 3 weeks early
2006
3,429
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
2018
1,608
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2022
951
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2023
1,414
season began 3 weeks late
2024
1,553
season began 3 weeks late
2025
1,817
season ended 5 weeks late
2026
1,012
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson