Loroum

Next 7 daysExtreme87%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early February
Record year: 20241,034
Trend: +7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +12%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	31	0
2002	25	0
2003	20	1
2004	20	0
2005	18	0
2006	19	0
2007	17	0
2008	19	1
2009	17	0
2010	17	0
2011	22	3
2012	2	1
2013	17	17
2014	7	7
2015	8	8
2016	16	16
2017	14	14
2018	9	20
2019	28	49
2020	293	591
2021	177	372
2022	99	177
2023	598	1217
2024	1034	2109
2025	1028	1923
2026	510	1467

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 490.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 216
Usual (median): 0.4
Rank: 1 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~42.2

An active part of the fire season↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Fires detected in recent days↑

Sat37°

Sun35°

Mon37°

Tue37°

Wed36°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~42 expected · usual 12

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~428 expected · usual 93

likely 23–591 · usual 0.0–192

Season

Ends ~15 March
Peak ~23 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid March

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: mid March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early November – early February
67% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +7%/10Raw: +12%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 1,003.1× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2019 (p 0.007): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

13

2013
17
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
season began 7 weeks late
2014
7
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 16 weeks late
2015
8
season ended 3 weeks late
2016
16
season began 10 weeks late
2017
14
season began 4 weeks late
2019
28
peak 2.8× stronger than normal
season ended 4 weeks early
2020
293
16× the normal annual activity
peak 48× stronger than normal
season ended 23 weeks early
2021
177
9.4× the normal annual activity
peak 14× stronger than normal
season ended 8 weeks early
2022
99
5.3× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
season ended 22 weeks early
2023
598
32× the normal annual activity
peak 51× stronger than normal
season ended 11 weeks early
2024
1,034
55× the normal annual activity
peak 81× stronger than normal
season ended 12 weeks early
2025
1,028
55× the normal annual activity
peak 66× stronger than normal
season began 5 weeks early
season ended 15 weeks early
2026
510
27× the normal annual activity
peak 71× stronger than normal
season began 4 weeks early
season ended 14 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson