Kourwéogo

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early February
Record year: 2003365
Trend: −45%/ 10significant · on raw data: +65%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	158	7
2002	85	9
2003	365	74
2004	228	39
2005	125	22
2006	148	23
2007	121	19
2008	164	26
2009	158	24
2010	138	25
2011	137	24
2012	74	65
2013	182	182
2014	123	123
2015	116	116
2016	137	137
2017	139	139
2018	110	150
2019	100	186
2020	56	107
2021	66	146
2022	87	159
2023	66	143
2024	29	62
2025	23	52
2026	10	22

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.1
Rank: 17 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~1.2

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~1.2 expected · usual 5.5

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~29 expected · usual 114

likely 24–54 · usual 23–259

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – mid March

Onset: late November
Peak: early December
End: mid March

Critical windows

early November – early February
77% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −45%/10Raw: +65%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2018 (p 0.007): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2003
365
3.0× the normal annual activity
peak 4.2× stronger than normal
2013
182
season ended 7 weeks early
2020
56
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2023
66
season ended 7 weeks late
2024
29
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2025
23
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 7 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson