Kouritenga

Next 7 daysLow5%

Fire season starts in about 4 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early December – early March
Record year: 2004109
Trend: −70%/ 10significant · on raw data: +31%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	69	9
2002	33	4
2003	59	13
2004	109	23
2005	77	16
2006	56	9
2007	34	3
2008	27	3
2009	38	5
2010	77	18
2011	57	10
2012	58	51
2013	66	66
2014	36	36
2015	42	42
2016	29	29
2017	50	50
2018	13	16
2019	21	43
2020	15	35
2021	18	32
2022	19	39
2023	2	3
2024	6	8
2025	0	1
2026	0	1

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.3
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (17%)↑
No fires in recent days↓

Sat35°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 0.7

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~2.5 expected · usual 41

likely 0.0–56 · usual 0.0–90

Season

Starts ~7 December
Peak ~28 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early December – early March

Onset: early December
Peak: late December
End: early March

Critical windows

early December – early March
79% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −70%/10Raw: +31%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record has no abrupt jump (p 0.08). ODLAR's record changes level in 2016 (p 0.002): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

10

2001
69
season ended 12 weeks late
2003
59
season began 3 weeks early
2004
109
peak 3.8× stronger than normal
2005
77
season ended 6 weeks late
2006
56
season began 3 weeks early
2011
57
season began 4 weeks early
2015
42
season began 4 weeks late
2019
21
season ended 6 weeks early
2022
19
season began 4 weeks late
2024
6
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season ended 13 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson