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Next 7 daysVery high71%

Peak fire period now · 9.1× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – late January
Record year: 20253,154
Trend: −48%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +47%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2232	166
2002	1547	249
2003	1620	352
2004	1710	346
2005	2038	465
2006	1294	268
2007	1097	219
2008	889	161
2009	1237	245
2010	1406	289
2011	1218	244
2012	967	770
2013	526	526
2014	329	329
2015	267	267
2016	155	155
2017	366	366
2018	443	475
2019	275	490
2020	591	1198
2021	654	1257
2022	445	900
2023	1896	3718
2024	2767	5643
2025	3154	6836
2026	1788	4975

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 72.1×

Raw data

› 204.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 649
Usual (median): 9.0
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 204.1× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 72.1×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~202.9

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sat34°

Sun34°

Mon35°

Tue34°

Wed34°

Thu34°

Fri34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~203 expected · usual 107

Next 3 months

About usual

~842 expected · usual 1,013

likely 197–1,347 · usual 76–2,343

Season

Ends ~22 February
Peak ~23 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – late February

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: late February

Critical windows

early November – late January
76% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −48%/10Raw: +47%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2017 to 7.3× its earlier level (p 0.004). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.10).

Unusual years

10

2001
2,232
season began 3 weeks early
2005
2,038
season ended 3 weeks early
2006
1,294
season ended 5 weeks late
2012
967
season began 3 weeks late
2014
329
season began 4 weeks late
2015
267
season began 6 weeks late
2018
443
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 4 weeks late
2019
275
season began 4 weeks late
2023
1,896
season ended 8 weeks early
2026
1,788
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson