Kossi

Next 7 daysHigh48%

Peak fire period now · 2.5× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – mid January
Record year: 20252,303
Trend: −34%/ 10significant · on raw data: +85%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1775	134
2002	1199	151
2003	1341	256
2004	1837	368
2005	1108	204
2006	1155	214
2007	1116	205
2008	1122	205
2009	1113	211
2010	1041	190
2011	922	153
2012	1044	947
2013	902	902
2014	763	763
2015	615	615
2016	807	807
2017	648	648
2018	581	942
2019	613	1219
2020	419	869
2021	709	1526
2022	656	1361
2023	862	1742
2024	1112	2261
2025	2303	4430
2026	1488	3828

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 6.0×

Raw data

› 27.8×

usual = 1×

This month: 599
Usual (median): 100
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 27.8× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 6.0×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~75.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon35°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~75 expected · usual 71

Next 3 months

About usual

~746 expected · usual 725

likely 338–1,081 · usual 220–1,354

Season

Ends ~29 March
Peak ~16 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late October – late March

Onset: late October
Peak: mid November
End: late March

Critical windows

mid October – mid January
65% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −34%/10Raw: +85%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2010 (p 0.007): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

8

2002
1,199
season began 3 weeks late
2013
902
season ended 6 weeks late
2015
615
season ended 6 weeks late
2018
581
season began 4 weeks late
2020
419
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2024
1,112
season began 3 weeks late
2025
2,303
2.2× the normal annual activity
peak 3.0× stronger than normal
2026
1,488
peak 3.3× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson