Kénédougou

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – early March
Record year: 20015,866
Trend: −64%/ 10significant · on raw data: +68%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	5866	415
2002	4874	559
2003	3367	532
2004	5400	802
2005	3017	483
2006	3907	618
2007	5358	801
2008	3340	505
2009	2832	422
2010	3321	508
2011	3362	521
2012	2483	1600
2013	2045	2045
2014	1831	1831
2015	1703	1703
2016	2174	2174
2017	2568	2568
2018	1291	1563
2019	1747	3512
2020	1184	2329
2021	941	1871
2022	707	1364
2023	863	1774
2024	1725	3303
2025	1224	2409
2026	1161	3491

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.04×

Raw data

0.38×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.2
Usual (median): 60
Rank: 25 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~5.8

Dry air (19%)↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat34°

Sun34°

Mon34°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu34°

Fri34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~5.8 expected · usual 37

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,098 expected · usual 1,935

likely 489–2,198 · usual 345–3,718

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~25 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early March

Onset: late November
Peak: late January
End: early March

Critical windows

mid December – early March
80% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −64%/10Raw: +68%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

5

2018
1,291
season ended 3 weeks late
2021
941
season ended 4 weeks late
2022
707
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2023
863
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
1,224
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson