Kadiogo

Next 7 daysLow12%

Fire season starts in about 1 week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid November – early February
Record year: 2003499
Trend: −27%/ 10significant · on raw data: +85%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	280	17
2002	253	22
2003	499	99
2004	299	40
2005	338	52
2006	294	44
2007	261	29
2008	322	42
2009	315	41
2010	392	71
2011	332	47
2012	162	133
2013	255	255
2014	237	237
2015	218	218
2016	194	194
2017	290	290
2018	290	436
2019	230	490
2020	140	275
2021	278	499
2022	221	429
2023	164	326
2024	156	319
2025	136	304
2026	99	323

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

About normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.93×

Raw data

› 6.3×

usual = 1×

This month: 5.7
Usual (median): 6.1
Rank: 15 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 6.3× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.93×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~5.4

An active part of the fire season↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Dry air (24%)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun34°

Mon35°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu34°

Fri34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~5.4 expected · usual 11

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~143 expected · usual 235

likely 120–224 · usual 87–397

Season

Starts ~16 November
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid November – early March

Onset: mid November
Peak: early December
End: early March

Critical windows

mid November – early February
74% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −27%/10Raw: +85%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 6.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.002): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2002
253
season ended 8 weeks late
2003
499
1.9× the normal annual activity
peak 2.2× stronger than normal
2005
338
peak 2.0× stronger than normal
2020
140
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2025
136
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season ended 11 weeks late
2026
99
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson