Ioba

Next 7 daysLow5%

Peak fire period now · 0.2× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late October – mid January
Record year: 20012,687
Trend: −44%/ 10significant · on raw data: +69%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2687	210
2002	1888	363
2003	2180	472
2004	2461	508
2005	2288	487
2006	1823	383
2007	1918	384
2008	2127	461
2009	2260	481
2010	2243	476
2011	2264	467
2012	1590	1506
2013	1710	1710
2014	1446	1446
2015	1297	1297
2016	1746	1746
2017	1571	1571
2018	1041	1906
2019	1298	2682
2020	1124	2302
2021	1144	2207
2022	976	1981
2023	903	1900
2024	813	1670
2025	821	1655
2026	253	766

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.48×

Raw data

2.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 35
Usual (median): 74
Rank: 21 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.1× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.48×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~75.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (26%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun35°

Mon35°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~75 expected · usual 189

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~943 expected · usual 1,644

likely 759–1,619 · usual 712–2,882

Season

Ends ~11 January
Peak ~30 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid January

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: mid January

Critical windows

late October – mid January
92% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −44%/10Raw: +69%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

2

2023
903
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
821
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson