Houet

Next 7 daysLow5%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – mid February
Record year: 20016,735
Trend: −50%/ 10significant · on raw data: +70%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	6735	621
2002	6604	1160
2003	4551	951
2004	6628	1443
2005	4407	865
2006	4471	896
2007	5587	1158
2008	4071	778
2009	4342	862
2010	5033	1080
2011	5718	1231
2012	3895	2941
2013	3702	3702
2014	2921	2921
2015	2484	2484
2016	3502	3502
2017	3634	3634
2018	2252	2976
2019	2561	5054
2020	2161	4417
2021	2304	4574
2022	1414	2957
2023	1597	3143
2024	2743	5599
2025	2027	4255
2026	1873	5420

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.35×

Raw data

1.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 23
Usual (median): 66
Rank: 23 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 1.6× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.35×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~29.6

Dry air (30%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat34°

Sun34°

Mon34°

Tue34°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~30 expected · usual 88

Next 3 months

About usual

~3,132 expected · usual 3,803

likely 1,485–4,686 · usual 1,102–7,453

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~4 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late February

Onset: late November
Peak: early January
End: late February

Critical windows

late November – mid February
80% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −50%/10Raw: +70%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.7× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

4

2002
6,604
season ended 3 weeks early
2022
1,414
season began 3 weeks late
2025
2,027
season ended 3 weeks late
2026
1,873
season began 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson