Gourma

Next 7 daysVery high78%

Peak fire period now · 2.5× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late October – mid January
Record year: 20253,714
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +87%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2423	235
2002	1335	219
2003	1984	466
2004	2540	613
2005	2290	560
2006	2318	533
2007	1839	443
2008	1638	408
2009	1757	378
2010	2151	487
2011	1703	410
2012	1283	1185
2013	1128	1128
2014	931	931
2015	893	893
2016	1237	1237
2017	1127	1127
2018	943	1573
2019	984	1918
2020	1715	3347
2021	2074	4098
2022	1652	3456
2023	2146	4092
2024	3269	6636
2025	3714	7692
2026	2876	7165

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 6.0×

Raw data

› 23.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 1,145
Usual (median): 190
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 23.1× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 6.0×.

Next 7 days

Very high

Full risk view

Very high

Expected detections: ~250.8

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
Dry air (15%)↑

Sat36°

Sun36°

Mon37°

Tue37°

Wed36°

Thu36°

Fri37°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Very high

~251 expected · usual 155

Next 3 months

About usual

~1,251 expected · usual 1,177

likely 485–1,611 · usual 402–2,196

Season

Ends ~8 March
Peak ~8 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – early March

Onset: early November
Peak: early November
End: early March

Critical windows

late October – mid January
65% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +87%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.21).

Unusual years

12

2002
1,335
season ended 4 weeks late
2004
2,540
season began 3 weeks early
2006
2,318
season ended 4 weeks late
2011
1,703
season ended 3 weeks late
2015
893
season ended 3 weeks late
2017
1,127
season ended 3 weeks late
2018
943
season ended 5 weeks late
2020
1,715
season ended 3 weeks early
2023
2,146
season ended 3 weeks early
2024
3,269
peak 2.4× stronger than normal
season ended 6 weeks early
2025
3,714
peak 2.4× stronger than normal
2026
2,876
peak 3.2× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson