Ganzourgou

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid November – early February
Record year: 2003208
Trend: −55%/ 10significant · on raw data: +27%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	143	9
2002	100	8
2003	208	32
2004	202	31
2005	147	19
2006	119	17
2007	116	17
2008	131	14
2009	134	21
2010	192	32
2011	173	31
2012	179	161
2013	201	201
2014	157	157
2015	104	104
2016	68	68
2017	123	123
2018	78	96
2019	13	31
2020	18	31
2021	80	142
2022	76	160
2023	23	42
2024	25	47
2025	8	26
2026	3	11

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.7
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.6

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (17%)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed36°

Thu35°

Fri36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.6 expected · usual 3.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~4.6 expected · usual 102

likely 2.3–29 · usual 1.4–251

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~4 January

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early March

Onset: late November
Peak: early January
End: early March

Critical windows

mid November – early February
71% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −55%/10Raw: +27%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.7× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

5

2012
179
season ended 6 weeks early
2020
18
only 0.1× the normal annual activity
2021
80
season ended 8 weeks early
2023
23
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
2024
25
only 0.2× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson