Comoé

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late November – mid February
Record year: 200114,736
Trend: −70%/ 10significant · on raw data: +36%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	14736	1349
2002	13715	3090
2003	9278	2472
2004	14057	3729
2005	13678	3709
2006	11276	2993
2007	11898	3089
2008	9765	2664
2009	11902	3128
2010	13143	3745
2011	10068	2855
2012	9168	7198
2013	8272	8272
2014	5665	5665
2015	4189	4189
2016	4774	4774
2017	4795	4795
2018	2820	4259
2019	2364	4654
2020	2813	5827
2021	2300	4615
2022	2575	5257
2023	3317	6594
2024	9621	19127
2025	4436	9123
2026	4750	14355

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.20×

Raw data

0.71×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.0
Usual (median): 10
Rank: 22 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 0.71× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.20×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~15.1

Dry air (22%)↑
Strong wind (3.6 m/s)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat32°

Sun33°

Mon33°

Tue34°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~15 expected · usual 120

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~6,086 expected · usual 10,439

likely 1,712–9,377 · usual 1,765–22,613

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~21 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – early February

Onset: late November
Peak: mid December
End: early February

Critical windows

late November – mid February
91% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −70%/10Raw: +36%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 2.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2002
13,715
season began 3 weeks early
2007
11,898
season ended 3 weeks late
2019
2,364
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2021
2,300
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2022
2,575
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2026
4,750
season began 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson