Boulkiemdé

Next 7 daysLow3%

Fire season starts in about 2 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid November – early February
Record year: 2003869
Trend: −46%/ 10significant · on raw data: +69%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	728	65
2002	610	94
2003	869	184
2004	647	109
2005	754	134
2006	646	102
2007	567	80
2008	591	90
2009	814	137
2010	643	106
2011	696	116
2012	422	360
2013	612	612
2014	597	597
2015	514	514
2016	581	581
2017	490	490
2018	358	541
2019	439	898
2020	298	634
2021	331	661
2022	240	471
2023	243	521
2024	231	452
2025	119	239
2026	99	231

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 5.2
Rank: 22 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~3.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (24%)↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun34°

Mon35°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu34°

Fri34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~3.4 expected · usual 21

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~194 expected · usual 544

likely 193–508 · usual 187–1,054

Season

Starts ~23 November
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – late February

Onset: late November
Peak: early December
End: late February

Critical windows

mid November – early February
82% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −46%/10Raw: +69%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2015 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

7

2002
610
season ended 3 weeks late
2013
612
season ended 6 weeks early
2022
240
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2023
243
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2024
231
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 3 weeks late
2025
119
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
season ended 5 weeks late
2026
99
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 6 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson