Boulgou

Next 7 daysHigh58%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – late January
Record year: 20011,721
Trend: −46%/ 10significant · on raw data: +68%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1721	165
2002	1248	217
2003	1304	284
2004	1425	305
2005	1445	332
2006	995	213
2007	899	168
2008	998	204
2009	1141	238
2010	1356	314
2011	1183	253
2012	969	860
2013	797	797
2014	825	825
2015	716	716
2016	686	686
2017	823	823
2018	548	838
2019	466	909
2020	341	684
2021	493	951
2022	230	428
2023	866	1737
2024	1330	2576
2025	1058	2277
2026	792	2240

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.8×

Raw data

› 42.6×

usual = 1×

This month: 339
Usual (median): 70
Rank: 1 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 42.6× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 4.8×.

Next 7 days

High

Full risk view

High

Expected detections: ~107.2

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (26%)↑

Sat34°

Sun34°

Mon35°

Tue34°

Wed34°

Thu34°

Fri34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

High

~107 expected · usual 70

Next 3 months

About usual

~827 expected · usual 870

likely 421–1,049 · usual 331–1,614

Season

Ends ~15 February
Peak ~23 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid February

Onset: early November
Peak: late November
End: mid February

Critical windows

early November – late January
78% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −46%/10Raw: +68%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 4.4× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.003): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

6

2018
548
season ended 4 weeks late
2019
466
season ended 3 weeks late
2020
341
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2021
493
season began 3 weeks late
2022
230
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks late
2023
866
season ended 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson