Bougouriba

Next 7 daysLow7%

Peak fire period now · 0.3× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – late January
Record year: 20042,896
Trend: −45%/ 10significant · on raw data: +65%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2891	275
2002	2573	590
2003	2408	639
2004	2896	708
2005	2691	675
2006	2046	510
2007	2387	562
2008	2190	539
2009	2128	534
2010	2438	618
2011	2587	636
2012	1744	1538
2013	1710	1710
2014	1565	1565
2015	946	946
2016	1857	1857
2017	1590	1590
2018	807	1351
2019	1187	2352
2020	1319	2659
2021	1016	2056
2022	932	1913
2023	979	1975
2024	1256	2524
2025	1001	2010
2026	710	2081

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.48×

Raw data

2.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 25
Usual (median): 51
Rank: 22 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.48×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~66.5

Fires detected in recent days↑
Dry air (26%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat35°

Sun35°

Mon35°

Tue36°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri35°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~67 expected · usual 126

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~1,253 expected · usual 1,953

likely 754–1,963 · usual 698–3,874

Season

Ends ~25 January
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – late January

Onset: early November
Peak: early December
End: late January

Critical windows

early November – late January
88% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −45%/10Raw: +65%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p < 0.001): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

4

2003
2,408
season ended 4 weeks early
2018
807
season began 3 weeks late
2024
1,256
season began 3 weeks late
2026
710
season began 8 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson