Bazèga

Next 7 daysLow4%

Peak fire period now · 0.3× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early November – early February
Record year: 20101,224
Trend: −19%/ 10significant · on raw data: +84%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	1123	102
2002	962	170
2003	939	228
2004	888	174
2005	974	215
2006	969	206
2007	855	150
2008	983	219
2009	1092	241
2010	1224	307
2011	1094	240
2012	845	659
2013	729	729
2014	838	838
2015	889	889
2016	757	757
2017	943	943
2018	770	1281
2019	834	1658
2020	632	1288
2021	1110	2249
2022	582	1198
2023	653	1348
2024	693	1398
2025	530	1065
2026	225	710

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.29×

Raw data

2.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 11
Usual (median): 38
Rank: 23 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.2× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.29×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~14.8

Dry air (17%)↑
No rain expected in the coming days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
This year is quieter than normal↓

Sat36°

Sun35°

Mon36°

Tue36°

Wed36°

Thu35°

Fri36°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~15 expected · usual 63

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~580 expected · usual 927

likely 457–674 · usual 536–1,381

Season

Ends ~8 February
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – early February

Onset: early November
Peak: early December
End: early February

Critical windows

early November – early February
83% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −19%/10Raw: +84%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2012 (p 0.006): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

3

2022
582
only 0.7× the normal annual activity
2025
530
only 0.6× the normal annual activity
season ended 4 weeks late
2026
225
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 5 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson