Banwa

Next 7 daysModerate37%

Fire season: about 16 weeks left · 1.7× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid November – early February
Record year: 20012,824
Trend: −37%/ 10significant · on raw data: +77%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	2824	210
2002	2203	331
2003	1709	319
2004	2394	474
2005	1596	289
2006	1706	305
2007	1553	262
2008	948	143
2009	1309	231
2010	1301	224
2011	1448	250
2012	978	755
2013	1018	1018
2014	1155	1155
2015	953	953
2016	1068	1068
2017	1452	1452
2018	894	1248
2019	971	1869
2020	594	1142
2021	678	1392
2022	683	1416
2023	1067	2059
2024	2236	4546
2025	2414	4969
2026	1379	3585

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

› 4.6×

Raw data

› 17.2×

usual = 1×

This month: 312
Usual (median): 68
Rank: 2 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 17.2× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 4.6×.

Next 7 days

Moderate

Full risk view

Moderate

Expected detections: ~51.4

Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑
An active part of the fire season↑

Sat35°

Sun34°

Mon35°

Tue35°

Wed35°

Thu35°

Fri34°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Moderate

~51 expected · usual 60

Next 3 months

About usual

~1,034 expected · usual 1,087

likely 423–1,431 · usual 367–2,097

Season

Ends ~1 March
Peak ~28 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – early March

Onset: early November
Peak: late December
End: early March

Critical windows

mid November – early February
66% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −37%/10Raw: +77%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 5.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record changes level in 2008 (p 0.04): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

4

2001
2,824
season ended 3 weeks early
2004
2,394
season began 3 weeks early
2018
894
season began 4 weeks late
2025
2,414
season ended 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson